Who runs Russia, anyway?; The two faces of Russia's two leaders

Maxim Trudolyubov
International Herald Tribune
11-20-2009
Who runs Russia, anyway?; The two faces of Russia's two leaders
Byline: Maxim Trudolyubov
Type: News

Is it Putin or Medvedev? Actually, it's both of them - they are just speaking to different constituencies

I've been in America for several months on a fellowship, and I'm often asked about Russia. Only the question is always the same: What is the relationship between Vladimir Putin and Dimitri Medvedev?
If a taxi driver discovers I'm Russian, he'll promptly ask: "Listen, who's in charge in Russia anyway?" A professor will start with polite small talk, but soon: "How, in your opinion, are the relations between the prime minister and president developing?"

My exposure to members of the U.S. Congress has been limited to three meetings, but each one quickly came to The Question. More attentive followers of the situation in Russia put it more elaborately: "How come your two leaders say opposite things but there are no signs of any conflict between them, at least on the surface?"

Normally, I try to evade the question and say that if someone claims to have a definitive answer, especially one based on "inside information," don't believe him. The only people who know are the two leaders themselves.

But I've been asked the question so many times that I've decided to summarize some obvious facts and offer a few conclusions. For Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev, Russian citizens are not voters, but an audience.

Russia's leaders have cleared the playing field of any serious competition. They are not particularly concerned about any election. They seek legitimacy in a different way. They watch how people react to news, to television and to their public appearances. They throw out a message, an idea, even an image, and wait to see how the audience responds. Issues that attract popular attention and cast a leader in a favorable light are retained. These are winning issues. Losing issues are withdrawn.

The key difference between Mr. Putin and Mr. Medvedev is that they work with different audiences.

Mr. Putin's audience is mostly people with a low to middle income who are dependent on the government for their salaries and pensions. Middle-aged and senior citizens -- people who lived a large part of their lives as citizens of a great power -- are well represented. Most of them watch television regularly.

Mr. Medvedev's base consists of people of middle and higher income. They live in cities, travel abroad and do not depend on the government for their income. People in their 20s and 30s are well represented. They cannot imagine a life without a market economy or modern technology. Many of them do not watch TV, but they do use the Internet extensively.

Another important part of Mr. Medvedev's audience is the international community. President Medvedev works "for export"; Prime Minister Putin, even when he speaks abroad, is talking for domestic consumption.

This is a crude division. The two groups overlap. There are older people in Mr. Medvedev's audience and younger people in Mr. Putin's. But the groups are distinct. Hence the divergence between Mr. Medvedev's and Mr. Putin's comments on many issues -- a difference that may seem political but is in fact tactical.

For this same reason, there is no real conflict between the two. At least there is none envisaged by managers of the "duumvirate."

The creeping rehabilitation of Stalin as an "efficient manager," the textbooks being rewritten to include favorable coverage of Stalin's rule, the talk of the need to be proud of the country's history -- all of these are directed at Mr. Putin's majority.

President Medvedev, by contrast, said recently that economic achievements cannot be used to justify political repression and that Stalin's crimes should be condemned. Mr. Medvedev, of course, was speaking to his constituency, not Mr. Putin's.

Mr. Putin supports state companies, state corporations and large companies that he considers strategic. In more than one instance he has taken a tough line on foreign investors. Mr. Medvedev, on the other hand, often speaks about the need to attract foreign investment and create a favorable climate for Western capital and technology. In his latest state-of-the-union he called state corporations "hopeless."

At 44, Mr. Medvedev is well-versed in contemporary technology, he likes photography and would be on Facebook and Twitter if he were not a public figure. He is part of the Internet generation.

Mr. Putin's and Mr. Medvedev's views may sound opposing because the two politicians are working to appease two different social groups. Power politics, pride in Russia's entire history, taking a hard-line on foreigners -- these are all winning points for Mr. Putin. Awareness of the country's problems and a critical stance toward the role of the state in the economy are winning points for Mr. Medvedev.

Mr. Putin's audience is larger, as is his resource base. This is why Mr. Putin is doing more than he is saying, while Mr. Medvedev is saying more than he is doing. Mr. Medvedev's role is to soothe the middle class and successful people who are frustrated with the government's inefficiency and corruption. But this does not mean that he is allowed to act on his agenda. He is only allowed to voice it and publicize it, which does sometimes amount to criticizing policies of Mr. Putin's presidency (no small feat in itself).

Why? Mr. Medvedev's audience is growing. More and more people are frustrated with corruption and inadequate public services. At the same time, Internet penetration of Russia is growing at 18 percent to 20 percent a year.

Mr. Putin is well aware of this and encourages Mr. Medvedev to raise issues that are constantly debated in the blogosphere and across social networks. But Mr. Putin knows that his audience is much larger, and that most of it relies on television as its main source of information and opinion. This is why very little of what Mr. Medvedev says has any chance of being implemented. He is entrusted with control over discussion, not action.

Mr. Medvedev's comments resonate well with me. But after so many years of state-sponsored P.R. it is difficult to tell whether he sincerely believes what he is saying. If he is for real, Mr. Medvedev still has to prove that he means what he says.

Maxim Trudolyubov, editorial page editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti, is currently a world fellow at Yale University.

Keywords: Putin, Vladimir V (Per); Medvedev, Dmitri A (Per); Russia (Geo)

Copyright International Herald Tribune Nov 20, 2009